Friday, October 18, 2019

THE GOOD NEWS

Don't Panic!
The world will not end this year.  In fact I'm here to tell you that regardless of the outcome of Monday's Canadian Federal Election it's unlikely anyone will be affected for at least a year.
As of today, according to an aggregate of all polls, there is a zero percent chance of the Scheer Conservatives getting a Majority government, and while the two main parties are neck and neck in just about every measure at the moment, none of it really matters.

The most likely scenario right now is that Andrew Scheer becomes Canada's Prime Minister in a minority Conservative government.  So let's look at that:
In 2006 Stephen Harper formed government and despite claiming he would balance the books and cut, cut, cut he ended up spending $50 Billion more than planned that first parliament because he didn't have a majority.  Harper was a skilled tactician, a bully and a cunning negotiator and he couldn't do much more than make matters worse for the Federal coffers by cutting the GST 2%. 
I can't stress this enough, Andrew Scheer is no Stephen Harper.  If he forms government he's doing so in the most hostile parliament in Canadian history. 
By convention in Canada, if Scheer's party gets the most seats then he will be given the chance to form government but as the Canadian people won't want to go back to the polls any time soon, the most likely result of his government losing a non-confidence motion is the Governor General will turn to the other parties and ask if they can form a coalition.
Thing is, from day one I've been getting a Joe Clark vibe from Andy Scheer.  Except in Mr. Clark's case he had actually completed his degree, got a Masters in Political Science and gained the respect of people outside Ottawa as a journalist where he honed his ability to form sentences.
Andy is barely able to keep track of his own lies.
The point is a Scheer government will be, like it's leader, largely impotent.  The only hope he'll have to avoid an election and outlast Clark's 9 months is by conceding to the majority of the house and since he doesn't have the skill and cunning of Harper and isn't facing the shaky confidence of Paul Martin, don't expect he'll be even a third as effective.
And the last thing Scheer's government will need is a fight against the Government's unions.

The second most likely option is that Justin gets a minority.  He'll have two options.  Try to run it alone, meaning he'll need to stick to things that the NDP or Greens won't take offense to in order to avoid a non-confidence vote, or he'll need to copy his Dad's 1974 playbook and form a loose alliance with the NDP or Greens to get the plurality he needs to stay in power.  In both cases he's not going to be able to push anything through Parliament that's too ambitious or challenging unless he also takes a page from Harper's Minority playbook and gets the consensus on the Bills before they're put to the House.

Either way, despite all claims that minorities governments have been progressive, the only thing that's true of all 13 cases of them in Canadian history is you can kiss balancing the budget good-bye!  Too many hands with too many agendas and multiple bases to please are going to mean spending.

And sadly for Conservatives, I predict the next election will be within 12 months, Justin will still be around for it, Scheer won't and all the old-news crap they've been trying to use on him won't mean a thing, particularly if the scenarios happen in the sequence I've listed them, because if Canadians don't learn from this election what the cost of splitting the vote is, how important strategic voting is to keep Conservatives out of power is, then this country will get the government it deserves.

And God help us if we do!

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